Early Retirement Update – December 2022

This is my latest retirement estimate for December 2022, based on all income and expenses until the end of November 2022. It’s looking like a solidly negative update this month, with my retirement goal in a worse position than it was in last year, and flat progress since June. It’s been a double whammy of poor market performance and increased expenses at the end of the year.

A reminder of the three ways I will track my progress:

  1. The first way will actually be with a simple Excel calculator that I made. I’ll plug in my monthly expenses, savings rate, and net worth. And the calculator will say just how long I have until retirement. Maybe it will say that I can retire tomorrow?
  2. The second way I’ll calculate this is through an equation and the help of Wolfram Alpha.
  3. The third and final way I’ll be calculating my early retirement date is with the help of the Mad Fientist Laboratory. I’ll input expenses, savings, and net worth and let his calculations do the rest of the work.

Retirement estimation based on 4% market growth:

Retirement estimation based on 7% market growth:

I’ve lost a year on the 7% growth estimates, and lost half a year on the 4% estimate. The good news is that I’m not too far off of where I was in December 2021, so if the market turns around and my spending goes back in line with my historical spending I think I’ll be able to turn this estimation around by June.

Retirement estimation if I never save another dollar:

With my net worth dropping, it seemed inevitable that this number would be worse off. My net worth did start climbing back up in November, but it wasn’t enough to offset the massive drop at the end of the Summer and early Fall.

Photo by Quang Nguyen Vinh on Unsplash

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